{"id":3320,"date":"2025-03-18T16:59:22","date_gmt":"2025-03-18T16:59:22","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.basco-t.com\/?p=3320"},"modified":"2026-01-08T16:56:11","modified_gmt":"2026-01-08T15:56:11","slug":"declino-demografico-italia","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.basco-t.com\/en\/declino-demografico-italia\/","title":{"rendered":"ITALY ON THE MOVE: DEMOGRAPHIC DECLINE AND THE FUTURE OF MOBILITY"},"content":{"rendered":"<h5 class=\"wp-block-heading\">An analysis based on ISTAT demographic projections for<a href=\"http:\/\/dati.istat.it\/Index.aspx?DataSetCode=DCIS_PREVDEM1#\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">ISTAT<\/a> per il periodo 2024-2045, integrati con le informazioni dell\u2019ultimo &#8220;Rapporto sulla mobilit\u00e0 degli italiani&#8221; di <a href=\"https:\/\/www.isfort.it\/2024\/11\/16\/presentazione-del-21-rapporto-sulla-mobilita-degli-italiani\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">ISFORT<\/a>. Lo studio esamina il rapporto tra il declino demografico e le dinamiche della mobilit\u00e0, evidenziando le principali trasformazioni territoriali e i nuovi modelli di domanda di trasporto.<\/h5>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-full\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"1810\" height=\"2560\" src=\"https:\/\/www.basco-t.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/03\/ENG_Italy-on-the-move-scaled.jpg\" alt=\"Analisi ISTAT e ISFORT su demografia e mobilit\u00e0 2024-2045: scopri come il declino demografico modificher\u00e0 il trasporto pubblico e quali soluzioni adottare.\" class=\"wp-image-3321\" title=\"\" srcset=\"https:\/\/www.basco-t.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/03\/ENG_Italy-on-the-move-scaled.jpg 1810w, https:\/\/www.basco-t.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/03\/ENG_Italy-on-the-move-1280x1810.jpg 1280w, https:\/\/www.basco-t.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/03\/ENG_Italy-on-the-move-980x1386.jpg 980w, https:\/\/www.basco-t.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/03\/ENG_Italy-on-the-move-480x679.jpg 480w\" sizes=\"(min-width: 0px) and (max-width: 480px) 480px, (min-width: 481px) and (max-width: 980px) 980px, (min-width: 981px) and (max-width: 1280px) 1280px, (min-width: 1281px) 1810px, 100vw\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<h1 class=\"wp-block-heading has-text-align-center has-text-color has-link-color wp-elements-c40ba2c8e0f305e41631c4951181bcb3\" style=\"color:#0763e3\">Share on:<\/h1>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-social-links aligncenter has-large-icon-size has-icon-color has-icon-background-color is-style-pill-shape is-content-justification-center is-layout-flex wp-container-core-social-links-is-layout-16018d1d wp-block-social-links-is-layout-flex\"><li style=\"color:#ffffff;background-color:#ebebeb;\" class=\"wp-social-link wp-social-link-linkedin has-white-color wp-block-social-link\"><a rel=\"noopener nofollow\" target=\"_blank\" 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c0.315-0.315,0.615-0.51,1.035-0.673c0.317-0.123,0.794-0.27,1.671-0.31C9.312,4.631,9.597,4.622,12,4.622 M12,3 C9.556,3,9.249,3.01,8.289,3.054C7.331,3.098,6.677,3.25,6.105,3.472C5.513,3.702,5.011,4.01,4.511,4.511 c-0.5,0.5-0.808,1.002-1.038,1.594C3.25,6.677,3.098,7.331,3.054,8.289C3.01,9.249,3,9.556,3,12c0,2.444,0.01,2.751,0.054,3.711 c0.044,0.958,0.196,1.612,0.418,2.185c0.23,0.592,0.538,1.094,1.038,1.594c0.5,0.5,1.002,0.808,1.594,1.038 c0.572,0.222,1.227,0.375,2.185,0.418C9.249,20.99,9.556,21,12,21s2.751-0.01,3.711-0.054c0.958-0.044,1.612-0.196,2.185-0.418 c0.592-0.23,1.094-0.538,1.594-1.038c0.5-0.5,0.808-1.002,1.038-1.594c0.222-0.572,0.375-1.227,0.418-2.185 C20.99,14.751,21,14.444,21,12s-0.01-2.751-0.054-3.711c-0.044-0.958-0.196-1.612-0.418-2.185c-0.23-0.592-0.538-1.094-1.038-1.594 c-0.5-0.5-1.002-0.808-1.594-1.038c-0.572-0.222-1.227-0.375-2.185-0.418C14.751,3.01,14.444,3,12,3L12,3z M12,7.378 c-2.552,0-4.622,2.069-4.622,4.622S9.448,16.622,12,16.622s4.622-2.069,4.622-4.622S14.552,7.378,12,7.378z M12,15 c-1.657,0-3-1.343-3-3s1.343-3,3-3s3,1.343,3,3S13.657,15,12,15z M16.804,6.116c-0.596,0-1.08,0.484-1.08,1.08 s0.484,1.08,1.08,1.08c0.596,0,1.08-0.484,1.08-1.08S17.401,6.116,16.804,6.116z\"><\/path><\/svg><span class=\"wp-block-social-link-label screen-reader-text\">Instagram<\/span><\/a><\/li>\n\n<li style=\"color:#ffffff;background-color:#ebebeb;\" class=\"wp-social-link wp-social-link-facebook has-white-color wp-block-social-link\"><a rel=\"noopener nofollow\" target=\"_blank\" href=\"https:\/\/www.facebook.com\/sharer\/sharer.php?u=https:\/\/www.basco-t.com\/it\/declino-demografico-italia\/\" class=\"wp-block-social-link-anchor\"><svg width=\"24\" height=\"24\" viewbox=\"0 0 24 24\" version=\"1.1\" xmlns=\"http:\/\/www.w3.org\/2000\/svg\" aria-hidden=\"true\" focusable=\"false\"><path d=\"M12 2C6.5 2 2 6.5 2 12c0 5 3.7 9.1 8.4 9.9v-7H7.9V12h2.5V9.8c0-2.5 1.5-3.9 3.8-3.9 1.1 0 2.2.2 2.2.2v2.5h-1.3c-1.2 0-1.6.8-1.6 1.6V12h2.8l-.4 2.9h-2.3v7C18.3 21.1 22 17 22 12c0-5.5-4.5-10-10-10z\"><\/path><\/svg><span class=\"wp-block-social-link-label screen-reader-text\">Facebook<\/span><\/a><\/li><\/ul>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"translation-block\">ISTAT's demographic forecasts for 2024-2045 indicate an overall decline in the Italian population of approximately 2.95 million inhabitants (-5%). Northern Italy shows slight growth (+0.4%), while Central and Southern Italy experience significant contraction (-4.2% and -13%, respectively).<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image alignwide size-full\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"1622\" height=\"434\" src=\"https:\/\/www.basco-t.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/03\/Tab.1-ENG.png\" alt=\"Previsioni del declino demografico tra 2024 e il 2045.\" class=\"wp-image-3325\" title=\"\" srcset=\"https:\/\/www.basco-t.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/03\/Tab.1-ENG.png 1624w, https:\/\/www.basco-t.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/03\/Tab.1-ENG-1280x340.png 1280w, https:\/\/www.basco-t.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/03\/Tab.1-ENG-980x261.png 980w, https:\/\/www.basco-t.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/03\/Tab.1-ENG-480x128.png 480w\" sizes=\"(min-width: 0px) and (max-width: 480px) 480px, (min-width: 481px) and (max-width: 980px) 980px, (min-width: 981px) and (max-width: 1280px) 1280px, (min-width: 1281px) 1622px, 100vw\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p>Le previsioni indicano le regioni meridionali come le pi\u00f9 colpite dal declino demografico con perdite importanti in Campania (-12%), Sicilia (-13%), Puglia (-13,1%) e Sardegna (-16,2%). Al contrario, la Lombardia (+3,3%) e l\u2019Emilia-Romagna (+3,1%) risultano in crescita. Le tendenze demografiche delineano un progressivo svuotamento delle aree meno dinamiche, in favore di regioni economicamente pi\u00f9 attrattive. Questo fenomeno accentua la concentrazione urbana e favorisce una polarizzazione della mobilit\u00e0 verso i grandi centri.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image alignwide size-full\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"1620\" height=\"1312\" src=\"https:\/\/www.basco-t.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/03\/Tab.2-ENG.png\" alt=\"Classifica regioni per declino demografico.\" class=\"wp-image-3326\" title=\"\" srcset=\"https:\/\/www.basco-t.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/03\/Tab.2-ENG.png 1622w, https:\/\/www.basco-t.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/03\/Tab.2-ENG-1280x1034.png 1280w, https:\/\/www.basco-t.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/03\/Tab.2-ENG-980x791.png 980w, https:\/\/www.basco-t.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/03\/Tab.2-ENG-480x388.png 480w\" sizes=\"(min-width: 0px) and (max-width: 480px) 480px, (min-width: 481px) and (max-width: 980px) 980px, (min-width: 981px) and (max-width: 1280px) 1280px, (min-width: 1281px) 1620px, 100vw\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"translation-block\">The described demographic dynamics directly correlate with the projections of the \"ISFORT Report on Italian Mobility \u2013 2024,\" which indicates a population reduction of -4% by 2044 in a median scenario, reaching -8% in a pessimistic scenario. Particularly notable is the decrease in younger age groups: -28% among ages 14-19 and -22% among ages 20-24. Concurrently, the over-75 population is projected to grow by +41%.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"translation-block\">The ISFORT Report also highlights the impact of smart working on mobility: approximately 3.5 million workers engaged in remote work in 2023, with this figure expected to rise to 3.75 million by 2025. Compared to onsite workers, remote workers reduce systematic commuting, leading to travel primarily outside peak hours.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Le previsioni demografiche ISTAT e il Rapporto ISFORT  evidenziano come il calo della popolazione modificher\u00e0 significativamente la domanda di mobilit\u00e0. Si stima una riduzione del -7% negli spostamenti complessivi e una contrazione pi\u00f9 marcata negli spostamenti della fascia giovanile (14-19 anni) del -28% . Queste trasformazioni impongono una riflessione sulla rimodulazione del trasporto pubblico locale. <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Di conseguenza, il trasporto pubblico, storicamente pi\u00f9 dipendente dalle fasce giovani e lavorative, si trover\u00e0 ad affrontare una modifica della domanda e un necessario ripensamento dei servizi tra spostamenti ridotti, concentrazione urbana e una crescente domanda di servizi per una popolazione anziana (per cui \u00e8 stimata una crescita del +39% nella fascia di et\u00e0 75-84). In questo contesto, soluzioni flessibili e adattabili, come i servizi a chiamata, possono rispondere a una domanda meno concentrata e pi\u00f9 frammentata sul territorio.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>A study on the potential of <a href=\"https:\/\/www.basco-t.com\/en\/servizi-a-chiamata-mobilita\/\">demand responsive transport services (DRT)<\/a> it has been discussed in a previous article.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h5 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><strong>Data used<\/strong><\/h5>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image alignwide size-full\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"2480\" height=\"2358\" src=\"https:\/\/www.basco-t.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/03\/Tab.3-ENG.png\" alt=\"Declino demografico\" class=\"wp-image-3327\" title=\"\" srcset=\"https:\/\/www.basco-t.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/03\/Tab.3-ENG.png 1080w, https:\/\/www.basco-t.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/03\/Tab.3-ENG-980x1241.png 980w, https:\/\/www.basco-t.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/03\/Tab.3-ENG-480x608.png 480w\" sizes=\"(min-width: 0px) and (max-width: 480px) 480px, (min-width: 481px) and (max-width: 980px) 980px, (min-width: 981px) and (max-width: 1280px) 1280px, (min-width: 1281px) 2480px, 100vw\" \/><\/figure>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Un\u2019analisi basata sui dati demografici previsionali dell\u2019ISTAT per il periodo 2024-2045, integrati con le informazioni dell\u2019ultimo &#8220;Rapporto sulla mobilit\u00e0 degli italiani&#8221; di ISFORT. Lo studio esamina il rapporto tra il declino demografico e le dinamiche della mobilit\u00e0, evidenziando le principali trasformazioni territoriali e i nuovi modelli di domanda di trasporto. Condividi su: Le previsioni demografiche [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":3322,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_et_pb_use_builder":"off","_et_pb_old_content":"","_et_gb_content_width":"","footnotes":""},"categories":[20],"tags":[40],"class_list":["post-3320","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-mobility-metrics","tag-mobilita"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.basco-t.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/3320","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.basco-t.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.basco-t.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.basco-t.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.basco-t.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=3320"}],"version-history":[{"count":9,"href":"https:\/\/www.basco-t.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/3320\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":5327,"href":"https:\/\/www.basco-t.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/3320\/revisions\/5327"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.basco-t.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/3322"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.basco-t.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=3320"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.basco-t.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=3320"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.basco-t.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=3320"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}